The Afghanistan Draw Down
July 10, 2011 by Team SAI
Filed under war on terror
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As President Obama took office he shifted focus from Iraq to Afghanistan. However two years down the line his promised surge and draw down have yet to reduce any tangible results. Training the Afghanistan Security forces(ASF) was the prime ticket for the draw down.
The primary hypothesis for the ISAF troops to begin the withdrawal is deployment of ASF in areas vacated by the ISAF. Currently this equation seems to be faltering in favour of the Taliban and it is more likely that they would imprint their presence in areas vacated by the ISAF. Friends and Foe alike understand that the US Presidential elections are behind the announcement of the “surge” troops by next summer. This has grave implications considering Pakistan’s recent hostility as US claims direct talks with Taliban. Credibility, motivation and ASF to take on the role of ISAF is still suspect.
This week Pentagon announced that the first lot of troops of the 3rd Battalion, 4th Marine Regiment — nearly 1,000 strong — will be the first combat unit “withdrawn without replacement” from once-bloody Helmand province. Army Lt. Gen. David Rodriguez, commander of the International Security Assistance Force Joint Command in Afghanistan, briefed Pentagon reporters in July via video link from Kabul about the drawdown and security transition, also set to start this month. On the heel of this announcement other ISAF countries also announced withdrawal in a gradual manner.
ISAF’s plan is still based on building Afghan forces’ capability, increasing government effectiveness in districts and provinces, and decreasing insurgent access to Afghanistan along the “porous” Pakistan border, as per the General.
He said that the focus of coalition efforts in Afghanistan is likely to shift east along that border. That is where it needs maximum support from Pakistan.
“We will end up thinning out [in the south] and then focusing more and more of our energy in the east,” he said. “As far as the timing of that, again, it will be conditions-based, and it’s a little bit too early to take that guess right now.”
ISAF’s Afghanistan strategy needs more help from the Pakistani military, Rodriguez said.
If Pakistan’s support doesn’t improve, Rodriguez said, the alternative on the Afghan side of the border is to build strength in security forces and the government to “be able to handle the challenges they’ll see in the future.”
Provincial and district governments must ensure they’re acceptable to the people they serve, so they don’t threaten security, the general said.
“When the people become mobilized and they build a representative shura that both represents their people and holds their government accountable, then we’re on the right track,” he said. “That government of course has to first provide security, as well as justice and a representative opportunity.”
Tall claims these in a situation where support from Pakistan will not be forthcoming as sought, especially after the killing of Bin Laden. This focus to the East will create difficult conditions for the ISAF delaying the draw down. The tribal loyalties and coherent actions by the Taliban and the Haqani group supported overtly or covertly by ISI would make the ISAF’s task of taming the Taliban that much more difficult.
Amongst all this not much has happened on the “Talk to Taliban” front. Combined, these would make the draw down that much more distant and provide the Afghan resistance ripe opportunity to politically gain the upper hand.
Related articles
- ISAF’s Drawdown, Transition Plan Outlined by Lt. Gen. Rodriguez (waronterrornews.typepad.com)
- Taliban step up cross-border attacks in Afghanistan and Pakistan (longwarjournal.org)
- Foreign soldier missing in southern Afghanistan, NATO says (theglobeandmail.com)
- ISAF nations follow US lead, announce early troop drawdowns (longwarjournal.org)
The Moguls got entrenched in the belief that they will rule India for ever. Small wonder than the rude awakening was not far behind. Despite comprehensively ignominious defeat in Vietnam the admittedly bankrupt USA still puts about that it could be in a good negotiating — if not victorious — position in Afghanistan. This is palpably absurd. Just think, who sued for peace; just who announced the intention to go home. Victorious?????
The truth is that the will of American people to support a war is clearly predicated on USA being attacked first. Which has never been the case in recent history. The US elite, in the hope that it can win an imperialist war of quick decision, has been wading into warfare since the last great war. It has won only two wars; one against tiny Panama where Noriega put up a butterfly size resistance; the other against Grenada; which country did not even have an army to fight the 345 billion a-year-defense-budget US Armed forces. American military has either suffered defeat or has mostly “bugged out” in all other actions.
In a perceptive moment of first degree magnitude, the great Mao Zedong had labelled the USA a Paper Tiger. His pronouncement was made long before the proof arrived in Vietnam and now everyone can see the American military ennui in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Described as a natural ally by Americans, India may have succeeded in local and rather time limited military action within (which is better than the US record) South Asia, but it is a natural ally of USA in at least one sense:
India has not won a war for over a thousand years by fully vanquishing the enemy. Because India like USA has NOT the military stamina to fight a protracted war against foreign invaders. India and Pakistan received their independence on a platter offered by a bankrupt Britain; neither went through armed struggles to achieve autonomy of sovereignty.
The moment of truth is beginning to actualize as India and Pakistan AGAIN FACE THE MARAUDERS INTERNALLY AND FROM CENTRAL ASIA. All the arms and military expertise in the two countries could not prevent grievous damage that less than a dozen men inflicted in Bombay and in the Pak naval base named Mehran. These men inflicted great material damage, killed many times their number (only ten men killed 176, injured over 200 and huge property damage was caused in India; 13 killed and over thirty injured in Mehran, and very costly planes were destroyed on the tarmac into the bargain, by only five men).
India-Pakistan have professional armies whose morale is mostly based on regular, goodly supply of palatable food and good possibility of rest. Faced with hunger, uncertainty and privation the JEHADISTS get all zinged up while our chaps, like Americans, feel like writing to mummy.
Make no mistake a new map of South Asia is emerging in slow motion which just might quicken when USA and Europe see the emerging massive contraction of their economies. No more need be said!!