News and Analysis Week Ending 17 October

• A plan B for Obama (FP)   The US is severely handicapped by a significant lack of credibility that is a direct consequence of its own foreign policy incompetence in the Middle East in the past several decades, especially the past decade. Most people and political movements, and a few governments, in the Middle East neither respect nor fear the US. More and more of them routinely defy the US, or actively resist it when it suits their purposes. … The US has a massive military machine that it can use at will in the region, especially via remote controlled drones and missiles; but it has a seriously degraded and limited ability to accomplish any clear goals using old-fashioned diplomacy, soft power, and engagement with the locals across sectors like economics, security, diplomacy, civil society, education and science and technology.”

• US withholds flood aid unless Pakistan raises taxes – defence.pk:  This is the kind of public diplomacy that can win the US hearts and minds IMO. Most Pakistanis see international aid as being misused and gobbled up by corrupt politicians anyway, and to hear the US speak up against the rich and powerful evading taxes will resonate with the average Pakistani far more than the KLL. It may still not be enough to paper over the anti-American sentiment due to the Drone attacks and Afghan invasion, but is nonetheless a positive move.”

• Why the EU Must Take the Lead on Burma Democracy - “The upcoming elections in Burma on November 7 and the possible release of Aung San Suu Kyi a few days later have transfixed policy discussions on one of the most closed societies in the world. Rather than using this opportunity to come up with a common and proactive approach, the European Union has instead allowed the ruling military junta’s manipulation of events to split its policies and bring into question its commitment to international law. … It is the EU, not China, that has the next move to make on Burma policy.

• Obama’s foreign policy: big ideas, little implementation – David Ignatius, Washington Post: Obama’s achievement is that he has reconnected America to the world. The United States was much too isolated and unpopular when he came into office. That isn’t so true now. But even though the United States is less hated, it may also be taken less seriously by other nations.

• U.S. Had Warnings on Plotter of Mumbai Attack American officials received warnings from two wives of David Headley, who was the chief reconnaissance scout for the attacks that killed 163 people in Mumbai, that he was planning such an attack.

• The same old story – Lubna Umar, John Sunol Blog: “The third meeting of the famous strategic dialogue between the allies, Pakistan and the US is due on the 22nd day of October, marking yet another foreign tour for our esteemed leaders to enhance their communicative competence and try their best to win the American leaders hearts and minds. Once again, the Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi has aired large aims of proposing a list of numerous issues that would be on the discussion table from the Pakistan side. These include: economy, energy, education, defence, science and technology, strategic stability and non-proliferation, counter terrorism, agriculture, health, and communication and public diplomacy, which is quite a long list and probably would not receive the attention it requires as the Americans have a plan contrary to ours.”

• Hasina emphasises ties with China – The Daily Star: “[Bangladesh] Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has underscored the need for collaboration with China in the field of science and technology, energy, power, culture, sports, health, education, communications and human resources development.

• Preparing for One War and Getting Another? by Dr. Antulio J. Echevarria, II. The idea that war or strategy is driven by a paradoxical logic is attractive, but a number of questions remain unanswered. If war has its own logic, rather than its own grammar, where does the logic of policy fit in? If the logic of strategy is paradoxical, how can it be taught? What are paradoxes, and can they be useful in guiding our strategic choices?

• An Army Transformed: The U.S. Army’s Post-Vietnam Recovery and the Dynamics of Change in Military Organizations, by Lieutenant Colonel Suzanne C. Nielsen. Drawing on the literature on military innovation and reform, the author examines an important case of military change: the transformation of the U.S. Army in the 2 decades preceding the Persian Gulf War of 1991. The findings of this study have significant implications for how the U.S. Army should think about implementing changes needed today to meet new strategic, economic, and technological challenges.

• The Coming of Chinese Hawks, by Dr. David Lai

• Is this how we want the world to see India? Vir Sanghvi (HT)

• The CWG looking glass Barkha Dutt (HT)

• American pressure (Dawn)The Pakistani government risks public alienation with a military operation in North Waziristan at this stage.