Kashmir – A Way Ahead

All seems to be quiet in Kashmir for the time being and there are political voices emanating from the Home Ministry that a political solution to the imboglio in Kashmir is in sight. The separatists deny any such initiative. It is in these relatively quieter times that India needs to once again revisit the earlier post Resolving Kashmir with added nuances.

A failure on the part of New Delhi to come up with an adequate plan could see Kashmir plunge back into protests that quietened down after official promises for a political solution. Renewed strife in the region would put the  government under further pressure as it tries to fend opposition attacks over a slew of corruption charges which have deadlocked parliament for almost a month, stalling legislative business. The awaam is simply sick and fed up of the mindless violence that resulted in 140 dead young Kashmiris? That they realised that they were being used as fodder for Azaadi… but from whom? India? CRPF brutality? Mindless violence?

The Azaadi is really an autonomy to create a happier Kashmir in the way Kashmiris want happiness; not Grozny kind of splitting asunder… We have tacitly accepted the idea of sensible aazadi (autonomy within limits) and the trio who are peacemaking under Dilip Padgaonkar are finding out the tactics for implementing this oprational art/strategy.

It is here that a recap is necessary as a fallout of Zia Ul Haq’s Operation Topac launched in 1989. The peaceful valley suffered at the hands of Zia ul Haq‘s aspirations translated through Op Topac in 1989. A mayhem and religious frenzy ensued which massacred innocent Kashmiri Pandits, marginalised the valley and left deep scars on the psyche of the people of the state – hindus, muslims or ladakhis.

Now Ghazwa e Hind – an al Qaeda movement to destabilise India through sustained use of fanning Islamic propaganda amongst the Indian Muslims led by supporters of Pakistan is underway in a big way. The aim is to fragment Indian Unity across the country through subversion, sabotage and propaganda. The post Larger Game elucidates this issue.

The terror factories of Pakistan have mushroomed all over these areas till they got consumed by the War on Terror. This warranted a change in tactics to keep the pot boiling in Kashmir. True to its credibility, the ISI manufactured a new recipe with a larger game plan – initiate “popular uprisings” or “Intifada” rather than direct militant action to burn the valley through internal discord. They also added intellectual flavour to their effort by politicising the issue through various opposition numbers and the separatists. The recent findings of Security forces and Central intelligence agencies who are interrogating Shabir Ahmed Wani, arrested by the Jammu and Kashmir police, have reportedly found that certain separatist leaders in the state are in direct touch with top officials of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI).

The recent Ayodhya verdict has been a blow to their designs. But India will offer more opportunities borne out of its vote bank politics, a fractured internal security mechanism and malfeasance of the politicians and bureaucrats to the problem at hand.

The misinformation campaign to withdraw AFSPA from Kashmir is a ploy to enable terror modules to operate freely with a view to undermine the efficacy of the armed forces and marginalise them in finding a lasting solution to the nefarious designs of Ghazwa e Hind. Our politicians have bitten the bait by siding with the separatists to erode the effect of good work done by the nation in containing the spread of intolerance amongst the masses – all this for petty politics borne out of ignorance and short term gains. AFSPA was a red herring that a “learning” (rather than weak) CM put up because he did not comprehend the internecine political games that were being played? The Pakistani handlers love this congruence and have taken it upon themselves to continue to fan the fires stroked by the political class.

It needs to be comprehended that the Kashmiris are hugely talented and grossly misunderstood. They need wise handling, respect, a chance to talk, taqrir they call it; and a chance to join the Indian mainstream. We have not been focused in what we need to do for a turnaround to take place. The trouble started with alienation of the people and unified Indian efforts are needed to deliver across political and religious lines by concentrating on PEOPLE, their Sufi moorings and tolerant dispositions.

Prognosis

The peace initiatives have to be followed through in earnest to assuage the hurt psyche of the people. The current prognosis dictates a multidimensional approach by all stake holders in integrating Kashmir with mainstream India. Apparently, we have been thoughtless and disinterested in a solution for Kashmir and unfair in making promises never meant to be honoured. This time around, we must be honest. The initiatives of all stake holders must rise above petty politiking in favour of National integration.

The political drift in Kashmir needs a no nonsense overhaul to address the genuine concerns of the people. As per experts, a possible way out of the current quagmire mandates that India get its act together to address the fault lines in Kashmir holistically.The suggestions are:

It needs to be understood that in the near to midterm there is unlikely to be a politico – diplomatic agreement between India and Pakistan whether the US puts in its fullest efforts or not. All future dispensations thus have to work on this presumption.

The stakes for the Pakistan Army and indeed the entire Pakistani nation are just too high. The Jehadi element and the Army see eye to eye only on this issue and make a lethal combination.

India has to be concerned about the possible Pakistani intent of preparing the ground for an impetus to the movement in Kashmir once the draw down process of the Western Armies commences from the Af-Pak region. Ghazwa e Hind may pick up momentum post the drawdown.

The other concern should be the radicalization of the separatist movement. The loss of the culture of Sufiyat is a telling blow to all moderates in Kashmir. The AQ linkage comes through this radicalization. There appears to be a perception among the separatists that without greater Islamic involvement their movement is bound to flounder.

This nexus has to be broken before India can succeed in anything else. The flow of money into the Valley goes on unchecked and it is through legal channels. The separatists have to be dried out financially.

Nations who experience an existential threat normally throw democratic norms to the winds. We continue with them as if our life depends on democratic certification. The anti AFSPA movement must be seen in this light. The academics who demand its repeal have no idea about the larger ramifications for the nation. An odd aberration in the interest of existential security has to be absorbed in a situation which is more than extraordinary.

Kashmir requires what we call subtle and intelligent integration into mainstream India though a participative review of such issues as Article 370, to enable joint ownership etc, so that industry can enter and create the economic bonds for integration.

One of the most important issues which is forgotten is the absolute necessity to ensure the security and safety of Kashmiri youth in education centres in mainland India. The reluctance to move out of Kashmir comes from this insecurity.

Our perception management efforts need to be a hundred times better beyond the charade of blunt propaganda to win hearts and keep them.

Any countering of the current sit in Kashmir has to be viewed from a social, religious, economic, political, diplomatic and military standpoint.

India must be cognisant of the fact that if the situation is somewhat under control in the hinterland, it is because of untiring actions by the armed forces to thwart all Pakistani designs to control infiltration and manage the internal security situation. This effort can not be denigrated and diluted, not now at least, lest we fall once again in the Pakistani trap to the advantage of separatists and dissident forces inimical to our national interests. A lot of fauji blood has been shed to achieve this congruence. We have to keep the pressure on albeit within the philosophy of iron hand in velvet fist.

We need to clearly outline our endgame in Kashmir beyond petty politicking within the ambit of a grand strategy, harmonising our development efforts with a firm control on the terror emanating out of Pakistan.

Lastly, the one institution which can ensure honest development without corruption and loot of central funds is the Army. Perhaps, a Super Sadbhavna is what is needed….behind the scenes, in league with the local administration.

It is time the Chief Minister changes tack from AFSPA and focus instead on  Sadbhavna; jobs and education; safe tourism and strengthening his hold over his fractious party? He must also win the Army’s trust and stop targeting it.

The time is ripe for maj changes that are substantial because those in charge now are capable and understanding; know their jobs. Now the CRPF needs to unlearn; use non lethal weapons; have a operational change and get its officers hands on with its functioning.

The Kashmiri culture of Sufi and Rishi tradition can be as decisive today for a shattered and upset, hurt awaam as it was when Iran was ablaze with fundamentalism 600 years ago and when the Sufists came to Kashmir for refuge…someone is needed to ignite that return to normalcy.

As Martin Luther King put it, ‘Power without love is reckless and abusive, and love without power is sentimental and anemic.’ In his book, Power and Love, the author Kahane argues that love connects and creates opening, potential and opportunity, but power is required for these to be tested and realized. However, dialogue that does not acknowledge and work with power therefore cannot create new social realities. In fact, each needs the other. This couldn’t be more true now in Kashmir than someplace else..

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