USA in the South Asia Calculus

The visit of US Secretary of State to India seek a simple answer – whether US has been able to read South Asia right over the years. This includes its understanding of India, Pakistan, Afghanistan and the impact of China in the regional dynamics. As per an article by Stephen Cohen, India is a friend, but not an ally while Pakistan is an ally but not a friend.

Can this visit correct the anomalies in Indo US relations and factor in various regional issues such as hyphenation of Indo Pak relations with its Af Pak strategy? Can US exert pressure on Pakistan to shed its support to terror?

For the records, India’s Nuclear Liability Bill and the muti role Combat aircraft deals have stained the otherwise smooth trajectory of Indo US relations. These would have created a benchmark in Indo US relations. US however seems to have missed on India’s ‘sovereignty’ clause to protect its vast market base.As per senior members of Obama team, the Bush administration handed off a strategic relationship with New Delhi transformed by agreements on peaceful nuclear cooperation and intensified security and economic collaboration. Yet in the first two years of the Obama administration, the Indians have opposed the United States on climate and trade initiatives, failed to enact liability legislation needed for American companies to develop India’s nuclear industry, resisted meaningful economic reforms, cozied up to Burma’s junta with gas and arms deals, and rejected U.S. combat aircraft in India’s biggest defense deal to date. The refrain in Washington is that the Bush administration oversold the potential for strategic partnership with New Delhi.

Pakistan, an ally of US in the war on terror, has a dubious record of being a friend. Hosting Osama is just one trust deficit event. Despite a decade of partnership, US has to apply the stick and carrot policy to ensure Pakistan stays in line. However, considering Pakistan’s track record its ability to create trouble in Af Pak cannot be ruled out.

In Afghanistan again US has a paradox of strategy as it dreams up drawdown, that of counter insurgency or counter terrorism. Both mandate a different application and would impact the draw down based on capability development of ANA and ANP. Then there is Pakistan which has tied America to the pole in Afghanistan in all the future dispensations.

An analysis of US policies towards India, Pakistan and Afghanistan suggests that may be America has a wrong theory of the region. First off it considered Af Pak as isolated from India. This  de hyphenation of India and Pakistan from Afghanistan over the last decade missed the Indo Pakistan rivalry in Af Pak. Pakistan’s India centricity was something the US missed out on. India being a Russian ally and Pakistan being a US ally was a misplaced theory which allowed Pakistan to covertly build nuclear weapons. Simultaneously, despite repeated reminders from India, it became the global hub of terror and now poses a global threat.

Afghanistan is caught between nation building with in the ambit of a counter insurgency strategy. Pakistan with a weakening relationship with US is keen on hedging for Taliban.

US needs to look at the region by looking  from a different lense – that of a foreign policy overhaul. It needs to strengthen its strategic use of carrot and stick policy with Pakistan. The trust deficit needs to be removed to serve American interests as also of Pakistan. However US can no longer ignore that any acceptable solution for Afghganistan depends on a secure and supportive Pakistan. This however may not help normalisation of Indo Pakistan relation.

Simultaneously, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton challenged India to expand its traditional sphere of interest from South Asia to neighboring regions where it can help the United States blunt China’s increasing assertiveness. Clinton appealed for India to project its influence eastward, toward China’s backyard in Southeast Asia and the Pacific Rim, as well as boost engagement in Central Asia, on China’s western flank. She said the U.S. and India shared values that made them powerful partners in promoting security, democracy and development in areas into which China has made a push for dominance.

As argued earlier, US needs to look at the region holistically both in conceptual and organisational terms. Key to these changes are to encourage the present bid to normalise relations between India and Pakistan. In this calculus US would have to factor the role China is playing in Pakistan and Af Pak. China too needs to be managed by sustained strengthening of Asia Pacific relations for which Clinton has invited India to the Asia Pacific forum.

 

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