Pressing the Pedal
March 16, 2010 by nannikapoor
Filed under geopolitics, war on terror
Obama’s Af Pak policy has reached an interesting juncture.
Kayani is squeezing Mc Chrystal and the US tight over a quid pro quo in resolving the issue of Afghan Taliban. That’s the only focus Patreaus and Mc Chrystal have in Afghanistan currently – get out before it gets too late. They unfortunately are not statesman of the calibre of Kayani, whose primary focus remains India. So Kayani arm twists the US to get favorable deals in economic and military aid while offering successes against Pakistan Taliban and arrests of some insignificant Afghan Taliban leader such as Baradar who have fallen out with Mullah Omar. This has also effectively upstaged any UN efforts of back channel diplomacy with the Taliban and reinforced Pakistan’s stand of being the only mediatory with Taliban in a negotiated settlement in Afghanistan. Unfortunately, the US military leaders bought this theory and went on to support Pakistan on scores of issues.
Gen McChrystal says conditions in Afghanistan war are no longer deteriorating
Simultaneously, Kayani manages the environment within Pakistan by sidelining the democratic government deftly – without any aggression towards them. Next, he plays mentor to the indigenous Jihadi groups such as LeT , JuD, HM and the like to keep India and the west tied down. Significantly, this global role of LeT suits Kayani well and keeps the Mullahs across the globe pacified while he walks a dangerous tight rope in Afghanistan. So he rules Pakistan without having to govern it.
Gen Kayani - will he have the last laugh?
While the American’s are busy applying a “Whole of Government” approach to manage events and activities of Pakistan, Kayani is sparring in all directions with aplomb. He manages to extract more than $6.7billion worth of aid in addition to a host of military equipment in terms of Drones, Bombers and ships while promising US that it “needs” these to combat the Taliban in Pakistan and strengthen the Eastern arm of the GWOT! Mullen Doctrine looks askance while making this aid available to Pakistan.
Is that why the events in the sub continent are at an important turn of history?
Is a Pakistani general capable of holding his own against so many odds and how?
Obama bared his cards by announcing a pullout commencing Jul 2011 for the consumption of the domestic and allied audiences. The fatigue in Afghanistan has a lot to do with this pronouncement. However, in so saying, he speeded up the process of Pakistan and other regional stakeholders unfolding their strategies to pursue their strategic interests in Afghanistan post the pull out. Kayani saw the writing on the wall and went on to announce that results in Afghanistan were contingent upon US safeguarding Pakistan’s interests by keeping India “the enemy number one” out of all regional solutions to Afghanistan. US agreed after it saw favorable Pakistani results in FATA, Swat and South Waziristan.
As leader of the triumvirate of military, mullahs and the ISI in Pakistan, Kayani also went on to strengthen the LeT and JuD to up the Jihadi ante against India , Israel and other western powers. This was to keep the flag of Jihad flying under a Pakistani banner across the globe. It also gives him the required legitimacy in the Muslim world. Ashley Tellis has this to say about the reach and capabilities of the LeT:
Although Pakistani propaganda often asserts that LeT is a Kashmiri organization moved by the Kashmiri cause, it is nothing of the kind. The 3,000-odd foot soldiers who man its fighting ranks are drawn primarily from the Pakistani Punjab. Indian intelligence today estimates that LeT maintains some kind of presence in twenty-one countries worldwide with the intention of supporting or participating in what its leader Hafeez Saeed has called the perpetual “jihad against the infidels.” Consequently, LeT’s operations in and around India, which often receive the most attention, are only part of a large pastiche that has taken LeT operatives and soldiers as far afield as Australia, Canada, Chechnya, China, Eritrea, Kosovo, Oman, Palestine, Saudi Arabia, Spain, the United Kingdom, and even the US.
Does Obama see this?
In post NATO Af Pak, terror will be the language of the masses. This language will not remain confined to the region and will knock at every conceivable destination across the globe. So if Obama wants to solve Af Pak, he will have to change tack and press the pedal to the floor in a different direction- a wee bit away from Afghanistan towards the Pakistan Army. He will have to ensure that while Pakistan handles the Taliban on its side of the border, there is a strong case for dismantling the Jihadi – Army nexus in Pakistan towards achieving any modicum of peace in the area.
If the US leaves the area with a pro Taliban government in Afghanistan and a militarized Pakistan, the terror factories and universities of Af Pak will make 9/11 appear innocent in due course of time.
That is an Obama call where it may finally be upto Kayani.
I agree with the issue raised.
While thinking that the US should fight a war that is actually not theirs, we must not forget that the US is concerned only about its own interests and people.
Yes, its concerns over the Pak nukes falling into wrong hands are definitely there but it must have taken some measures that we are not in the know of.
Its time that India starts to think and act on its own for safeguarding its own interests.
@ King
The game plan of Kayani is to squeeze the Americans while he presides over the terror universities of the globe. He takes the call on the future direction of all terror outfits in the region while posing to be fighting the War on Terror. It is a dangerous game but he is playing it well for the time being, especially since he senses an urgency on part of US to exit gracefully from the region.
Obama needs to see through this else his departure from the region may be inordinately delayed or if he goes, he may have to come back again.
As regards India, it needs to continue to maintain its presence in Afghanistan through its development and reconstruction activities. The nuclear issue has been covered in another post “Pakistan’s Nuclear Game”
Do you really believe that US is that much innocent that it would not be able to understand Kayani tactics, if you look at other way around, US is selling billions of dollars arm to India and also to Pakistan, Opium Market is going huge in Afghanistan as well, how many attacks US had after 9/11, but Pakistan is suffering from these attacks due to support of US stance after Afghan Invasion. if India wouldn’t have asked from US to use it’s air bases after 9/11 and if there would have been democratic govt working in Pakistan that time situation might had been different, though Pakistan gave it’s stance that we would like to stay neutral in Afghan war, but as per former President Musharraf in his book “IN THE LINE OF WAR” Negroponte threatened him that they will bomb Pakistan and get ready to go back to old stone age.
Everybody needs to realize that Pakistan is suffering in this war due to intricate geographical attachment with Afghanistan and Pakistan as small country is not responsible for the terror in whole world.
@ Yasser
I couldn’t agree more with you. The Western terror war has engulfed Pakistan and created a diabolic situation for it’s people. In my earlier posts on the subject I have strongly argued that voices in Pakistan were against terror – nuclear or otherwise. It is up to Kayani to make sure that he doesn’t use the present situation to leverage terror as a stated Pakistani policy – no one wants it least of all the people of Pakistan and India.
Supporting the terror outfits such as LeT is bad for Pakistan because that gives Pakistan the image of controlling global terror. Will request you to read my previous post on state of LeT in maligning the image of Pakistan globally.
LeT and Forceful Talibinsation is bad for every country not only Pakistan, But Pakistan is having huge disadvantage due to complex border with Afghanistan. On the other hand I don’t see any reason for India to indulge itself in Negative activities within Afghanistan against Pakistan and involvement in Balochistan, but India is doing so just to make Pakistan busy on Afghan border instead of Indian border, India should realize Pakistan as a small country was and can never be a threat for India, Imagine if India and Pakistan starts living like brotherhood nation, who will be in most disadvantage position, certainly it would be Russia, US and China, since India has 20 times bigger market than Pakistan China would not be that much Affected. Russian and Israel sales of arm to India is in billions of dollars, and that’s the sole reason behind Indian negative tactics against Pakistan and off course the pushing forces are Russia, Israel and now joined by US after 123 Deal. As far as matter of Kashmir is concern India should accept that Freedom fight is going on, demilitarization is one solution, just think about torture against Kashmiri young men by Indian security forces, particularly the practice of inserting live copper wires into penises, which led to hundreds of cases of impotence in the valley, off course it turns one into Crusader. (For me Rahul Ghandi suggested the right solution that India shouldn’t concentrate more on Pakistan, i think he understood the situation) but let’s see how India will handle the vote-bank of Indian’s who vote for those Indian politician who speak against Pakistan.
@ Yasser
It is great to get a perspective from the other side. However if we keep believing in stories, there would never be any Aman Ki Asha in the subcontinent. We must not somehow let the real politik come in the way of analysis and prognosis. India and Pakistan have no choice but to resolve their mutual issues – and this can not be done through rhetoric alone.
By pressing the pedal I mean all forces Pakistani or American should focus on dismantling the terror triangle between the Pakistan military, ISI and the terrorist organisations.
//India and Pakistan have no choice but to resolve their mutual issues//
i agree and we Pakistani mostly agree on this.
But what we read is not always true, though above link is a credible source i believe, on the other hand i believe if 600,000 of Pakistani forces is involved in controlling one area any where in the world even it’s Muslim territory, then here is my 2 cent at least 1000 of them must be involved in illegal sexual activities, Alcohol usage and etc, this is what has happened in Iraq and Afghanistan as well and unfortunately in Kashmir, that’s why in my opinion demilitarization is urgent need in Kashmir etc.
@ Yasser
Totally agree with you
Thanks the author for article. The main thing do not forget about users, and continue in the same spirit.
The subject is fully clear. In general your blog is great.