India’s Strategic Environment and Culture

Strategic Environment: Global Paradigms

In a TED discourse Parag Khanna articulated the global village redrawing borders along the infrastructure lines. We agree with some of his thoughts which are though not patented. The Long View from Delhi talks of similar scenarios with defined drivers redefining the future shape of Asia. As per Parag, the world had 100 countries at the end of World War II. Today it has over 200 countries. Therefore it is transforming along economic and infrastructural super highways based on only

10 percent of global geographical locations. 90 percent of the world continues to stay rooted to geography and stays in the place it was born. To them region, religion and boundaries matter a lot and often violently.

While Parag’s argument that it is difficult to comprehend the nuances of political geography – as to how the world divides and distributes itself, is true, the world is still very much a place bound by boundaries along nation states. Border conflicts, accounting for a large volume of the military infrastructure of nations, stand and will continue to stand in the way of peace and undermine progress.

However something keeps changing the world and gives birth to countries where none existed before. The traditional geographical borders have been redefined by the Euro Union which has created a larger Euro landmass based on economic interdependence and created a zone of peace in the middle of the world. A union which had only six members to begin with today has 45 members with countries like Turkey as part of the larger Euro Empire. There is a wider Mediterranean Union developing with infrastructural and energy bonds developing between North African States and Europe. The Caucasus and Central Asian Republics are developing their own infrastructural identities through the oil pipes which are leading to development of new silk routes based on interdependence between states.

Russia is shrinking and losing much of its energy dominance over Europe while China is “leasing” companies in Southern Russia and increasing their sphere of influence in this region through their industrial might blended suitably with soft power. Mongolia is facing a different dynamic where China is “buying out” Mongolia through their economic might. The copper, zinc and gold mines of Mongolia are wholly owned by China.

It is growing its influence and interests traditionally and non traditionally across frontiers in East Asia through economics, diplomacy, free trade agreements with the neighbours. It has entered into treaties with countries like Japan, Korea, New Zealand and Australia to ward off American threat. Its policy of appeasing the neighbours through duty free cheap imports is gradually making these countries dependent on China for their growth and sustenance. Culturally countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and other ASEAN nations are being overwhelmed by a marked demographical shift from China. Rightfully in evaluating strategic culture, China seems to be following a strategic vision around its periphery and managing the global environment heralding it’s not so peaceful rise. Simultaneously, it is being a better capitalist than the capitalist countries. An analysis of China’s strategic culture reveals that it has followed the strategist realist approach in creating a Greater Chinese Co Prosperity Sphere by a systemic application of diplomacy, demography, commerce and trade. It has transcended border disputes by buying”, leasing and dominating nations on its periphery by increased dependence on China for their trade and well being. All except India where it wants to check India’s rise as a counter to Chinese hegemony in the region. The string of pearls and the golden beads are part of this larger game plan.

The Af Pak geography is being marked by US fatigue and a possible rise of Caliphate with a Pashtunistan dividing Pakistan and Afghanistan. The China Pakistan nexus in the region has virtually made Pakistan a satellite state of China while Myanmar is fast developing as another Pakistan on India’s East.

The Israel Palestine and the Indo Pakistan conflicts are the two phenomenons which have as yet not been overtaken by the infrastructure led re definition of traditional boundaries. As commentators from India and abroad argue, this is not likely to change in a hurry primarily because South Asia is the only region in the world apart from Middle East which has given preference to petty regionalism based on ethnic and social divides. This is at the cost of the well being of its people and the region.

A SAFTA could lead to malleable borders with possibilities of mutual growth like the EU – but this is not to be till Indo Pakistan rivalry tempered by China continues to fuel passions. Consequently, the region continues to burn of its own contradictions contrary to the global trends.

The Regional Environment in South Asia

The regional security in South Asia is marred by Afghanistan’s endless civil war, despite the induction of additional NATO troops. Brigadier Gurmeet Kanwal argues that the region may be on a precipice courtesy Af Pak. Pakistan, at the top of the table, today sits on a sectarian time bomb radicalised and ready for Balkanisation.

While 2010 has been relatively peaceful in South Asia — with the exception of the conflict in Afghanistan, the  regional security environment remains unstable with India’s unresolved territorial and boundary disputes with China and Pakistan and continuing internal security challenges are a cause for concern. After West Asia, this region is perhaps the most trouble prone in the world.

With a history of four conflicts in 60 years and three nuclear-armed adversaries continuing to face off, South Asia has been described as a nuclear flashpoint. Hence, in view of the ongoing conflicts and the possibility of new conflagrations, 2011 is likely to be a turbulent year. The regional security environment in South Asia continues to be marred by Afghanistan’s endless civil war despite the induction of additional troops in 2010 by the US-led NATO-ISAF coalition forces. The situation can be characterised as a strategic stalemate.

This will continue with the Taliban and the NATO forces alternately gaining local ascendancy for short durations in the core provinces of Helmand, Marjah and Kandahar.

The Afghan National Army is still many years away from achieving the professional standards necessary to manage security on its own. It will, therefore, be difficult for the US to begin its planned drawdown of troops in July 2011.

Pakistan’s half-hearted struggle against the remnants of the al-Qaeda and the Taliban, fissiparous tendencies in Baluchistan and the Pushtun heartland, continuing radical extremism and creeping Talibanisation, the unstable civilian government, the floundering economy and, consequently, the nation’s gradual slide towards becoming a ‘failed state,’ pose a major security challenge for the region.

Unless the Pakistan army gives up its idiosyncratic notions of seeking strategic depth in Afghanistan and fuelling terrorism in India and concentrates instead on fighting all varieties of Taliban that are threatening the cohesion of the state, the instability in Pakistan will continue.

Turmoil in West Asia is destined to continue through 2011 as Israel stubbornly refuses to halt the construction of new settlements in the West Bank and the Palestinian militias are getting increasingly restive. The collusive nuclear weapons-cum-missile development programme of China, North Korea and Pakistan and Iran’s quest for nuclear weapons are issues of concern.

Iran’s nuclear ambitions and the vaguely stated threats of several of its neighbours to follow suit are a major cause of potential instability in the region. Saudi Arabia, in particular, may fund Pakistan’s nuclear expansion programme as a hedging strategy against the acquisition of nuclear weapons by Iran. Such a course of action would be a disastrous blow to international non-proliferation efforts.

Sri Lanka’s inability to find a lasting solution to its ethnic problems despite the comprehensive defeat of the LTTE (Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam) has serious repercussions for stability in the island nation. Bangladesh is emerging as the new hub of Islamist fundamentalist terrorism even as it struggles for economic upliftment of its people.

The peoples’ nascent movement for democracy in Myanmar and several long festering insurgencies may destabilise the military Junta despite its post-election confidence. The movement for democracy could turn violent if the ruling Junta continues to deny its citizens basic human rights. There though are no indicators of this as yet and the Junta is firmly in control of the situation.

Drugs remain the biggest force driving the Afghan war as the major source of funding of the Taliban. This has ominous portets where the Taliban would be able to muster enough staying power to sit out the ISAF in Afghanistan.

India’s standing as a regional power that has global power ambitions and aspires to a permanent seat on the UN Security Council has been seriously compromised by its inability to successfully manage ongoing conflicts in its neighbourhood, singly or in concert with its strategic partners.

These conflicts are undermining South Asia’s efforts towards socio-economic development and poverty alleviation by hampering governance and vitiating the investment climate. It appears inevitable that in 2011 the South Asian region and its extended neighbourhood will see a continuation of ongoing conflicts without major let up. In fact, the situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan could deteriorate beyond the ability of the international community to control.

Economically, the region has been unable to wriggle free of the shackles of the colonial era to pursue free trade and economics amongst each other. This apart from the mistrust and strategic posturing borne out of Indo China struggle for influence has vitiated the Indian periphery. Lack of a coherent vision and strategic culture sees India marginalised facing a two front scenario with a beleaguered backyard.

Amongst all this, does India have a flexible and robust system of Governance to study and predicate such academic activity towards enunciating its National Interests and Priorities? To this end what is India’s strategic vision?

Related articles

• “A disintegrating Pakistan: Choices for US and India” and related posts (intellibriefs.blogspot.com)
• Can India face the dragon? (nowpublic.com)
• Pakistan, China celebrate ‘all-weather’ friendship (sfgate.com)
• India and Its Neighbors (blogs.forbes.com)
• Pak wants peaceful resolution of issues with India: Gilani – The Hindu (news.google.com)
• Stephen Cohen: US’s biggest Pakistanphobe (rupeenews.com)
• Setbacks Plague U.S. Aid to Pakistan (online.wsj.com)
• India frets Chinese rail links on its borders (rupeenews.com)