Cold War Gains Momentum
November 19, 2011 by Team SAISA
Filed under Analysis, geopolitics
Let the Cold War Begin
Over time, Beijing will try to convince other states in the region to abandon ties with America, and Washington will almost certainly resist those efforts. An intense security competition will follow.
-Harvard Professor Steve Walt
When US president Barack Obama announced in Canberra that he was refocusing US military attention in the Asia-Pacific region, he was in effect sounding the bugle cry for a new Cold War – this time with China. Just the other day, Obama urged China to “grow up” and act responsibly on the world stage. In the meanwhile, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said on Friday that “outside forces” had no excuse to get involved in a complex dispute over the South China Sea, offering a veiled warning to the United States and others not to stick their noses into the sensitive issue.
As per Damian Grammaticas, China Correspondent of the BBC,
“The message is that America is ensuring it is strategically poised to project power over the vital trade routes that pass through the South China Sea, and it wants to reassure its partners in Asia it is cementing that position”.
In our post USA, China and India – The New Cold War , last year,we had articulated that in America’s quest to establish its supremacy over the Asia Pacific it will meet China halfway. The words of the post ring true after the APEC 2011 and EAS 2011 summits recently held in Honolulu and Bali. The jostling for a larger share of the economic pie finally led to America entering into a military alliance with Australia for positioning 2,500 marines in Australia to prove that the Pacific was “America’s sphere of Influence”and that America “was here to stay”. This was strongly objected to by China as was the formation of a Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) which does not include China. President Obama also asked China to “play by the rules” or face dire consequences. To display its strategic interests in South China Sea, United States and Singapore are in the final negotiating stages of an agreement to base some of the U.S. Navy’s new Littoral Combat Ships at the Changi Naval Base as per a Washington Post report of date. This leaves the regional countries confused as thus far they have been living under the umbrella where China is their economic partner and USA the security provider who guarantees peace.
Key US Bases in Asia Pacific - BBC
As per an analysis in Asia Times, such a dichotomy is understandable. “It captures the comparative advantage for Southeast Asia that each outsider has to offer: China’s booming economy, America’s matchless military. It avoids the risk – many Southeast Asians would say the folly – of entrusting regional security to the People’s Liberation Army Navy, or PLAN, let alone the PLA”.
It further argues that whether China seeks hegemony over the region is a matter on which many disagree. But ASEAN will not willingly invite China to replace the American security role in Southeast Asia, not if Beijing continues to assert forcefully its control over nearly the entire South China Sea – or, as some Vietnamese and Philippine activists would like it to be called, the Southeast Asia Sea.
During the two summits, thus, USA was clearly seen pushing China along with members of the ASEAN. Any dispute that China has in the region with members of ASEAN buttress American interests as it attrites Chinese power to the benefit of America. As per conclusions of SIPRI Paper 26, as China’s global reach has expanded, so has the range of issues debated as potential core interests. The wording of China’s foreign policy objectives, summed up as a pursuit of a ‘harmonious world’, are often so lacking in specificity that it is possible to justify any sort of action.This assumes added ambivalence to the foreign policy when all stake holders defining the foreign policy, especially the PLA are keen to keep America at bay, regionally. This explains a series of belligerent actions in the neighbourhood which run counter to the ancient Chinese mantra of a peaceful rise.
Ravaged by the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, USA wants a collaborative regime to counter Chinese influence in Asia Pacific through its “friends”. The new Cold War is based on the historic Soviet model of squeezing China’s budget through military encirclement, while hoping for internal uprisings by Chinese workers and intellectuals against austerity and repression.
South China Sea BBC Map
In a commentary on the subject, Huffington Post articulates that Obama’s new Cold War approach includes an emphasis on continued bilateral cooperation with China while adopting a more aggressive and confrontational policy. Obama asserts that the United States is a “Pacific nation,” which intends to play “a larger and long-term role in shaping this region and its future.” However a reverse strategy by China on the Californian coast might be catastrophic.
As per an analysis, if the first cold war had any lessons, the primary one was that these wars were fought more by the proxies and never by the militaries. Finally USSR broke down under the pressure of the proxy wars, the financial breakdown and on the ideological levels. Today USA seems to be in an economic crisis while being militarily stretched. And all the while that the US sent its troops to far-off continents to wage wars, China has been single-mindedly building up its industrial and military prowess. More here.
The Chinese discourse till late was, “Tao guang yang hui” variously translated but essentially means “hide brightness, nourish obscurity”. The exhortation was to keep a low profile when in an adverse situation and wait for a suitable opportunity to reverse fortunes. The other advice was “yield on small issues with the long term in mind.” All this has begun to change as China’s influence began to rise and the US was perceived to be in decline. There is an exuberance and global self-confidence accompanied by a global outreach that was not visible earlier.
When viewed in context, our earlier post on China and South Asian dynamics, had heralded the official proclamation of a cold war in the Asia Pacific last year. This new found US bravado and Chinese assertiveness led by PLA and PLAN annunciates a new era of proxy wars in which the regional grass is going to be trampled upon by these two elephants jostling for influence.
In the Indian context, USA wants to thin down Chinese influence for which it needs India’s support. The theory of String of Pearls may well be a part of this public diplomacy initiative to let India and China keep each other engaged. Dr Manmohan Singh’s assertion of India’s interests in South China Sea being “totally commercial” and that of re examining the “specific grievances” of Nuclear Liability law as per “four corners” of India’s laws is a step in the right direction. It would now be prudent to “engage and act east” firmly with Indian characteristics. More here.
As America finds new bogeymen, India needs to follow the path of pragmatic realism and charter a deliberate and long thought out path towards it’s rightful destiny – that path does not envision conflicts with neighbours and allies – at least not for now.
Related articles
- US marine base for Australia irritates China (sayou.wordpress.com)
- U.S.-China tensions risk spilling over into Asia summit (mb50.wordpress.com)
- Gillard hails ‘Asian century’ as ASEAN begins – ABC Online (abc.net.au)
- Obama tells Asia US “here to stay” as Pacific power – Reuters (reuters.com)
- Obama Says U.S. Presence a Crucial Part of Pacific Security (businessweek.com)
- Obama Sending Clinton to Myanmar (maboulette.wordpress.com)
- A growing Chinese threat, Capitalism threatens Libya (wrtgonthenytimes2011.wordpress.com)
- Obama to Asia: U.S. Is Here to Stay (usnews.com)
- A look at the top issues at Southeast Asia meeting (seattletimes.nwsource.com)
- A New Cold War? (notesandobservations.me)
A simple you-are-with-us-or-against-us worldview tends to ignore the areas of ambiguity, the gaps between official rhetoric and policy, where many Asian countries have traditionally conducted their foreign relations. Officially non-aligned throughout the cold war, India actually played the rivalries between the United States and the Soviet Union to its advantage; and there is no reason to assume it won’t do the same with China, its largest trading partner, and the United States, its closest military and political ally.
WITH China’s growing influence over the global economy, and its increasing ability to project military power, competition between the United States and China is inevitable. Leaders of both countries assert optimistically that the competition can be managed without clashes that threaten the global order.
Most academic analysts are not so sanguine. If history is any guide, China’s rise does indeed pose a challenge to America. Rising powers seek to gain more authority in the global system, and declining powers rarely go down without a fight. And given the differences between the Chinese and American political systems, pessimists might believe that there is an even higher likelihood of war.
I find this observation relevant in view of an article in NYT.
“With China’s growing influence over the global economy, and its increasing ability to project military power, competition between the United States and China is inevitable. Leaders of both countries assert optimistically that the competition can be managed without clashes that threaten the global order.
Most academic analysts are not so sanguine. If history is any guide, China’s rise does indeed pose a challenge to America. Rising powers seek to gain more authority in the global system, and declining powers rarely go down without a fight. And given the differences between the Chinese and American political systems, pessimists might believe that there is an even higher likelihood of war”.
At the outset please allow me to thank you for the wonderful education I receive through your erudite email despatches. Helps one keep pace with the world.
May I take this opportunity to air my two pennies worth on ur recent despatch – Cold War Gains Momentum.
Presently, I happen to be in Indonesia (undoubtedly the geopol fulcrum of the SE Asian region) and my present location and exposure have allowed me to view and somewhat understand the geopol leanings of both India and China from a third party’s perspective. Apart from being equidistant from both the Asian giants,I think I have had a bit of an exposure to the happenings in the pacific region (the oceanic-land mass that separates China from US or vice versa).
Sir, without being too verbose, I have the following four obsns that I feel preclude warranting the elevation of the current Sino -US tensions to being termed as Cold War.
1. As per the theory of bal of power of intl relations, cold war is the ultimate product of a near bal of power being achieved / existing between two countries/blocs, implying that cold war exists between “equals”. The essential components of “power” in this context being the ability to project pol influence, mil threat/power and eco wherewithall. China still has a long way to go to match upto the equation, both regionally and internationally. China, by no stretch of imagination, can be see as a “geostrategic equal” of the US – as was the case with earstwhile USSR.
2. A lot of experts believe that to an extent China has deliberately been “propelled into its current status of so called greatness” through a deliberate and calliberated US geostrategic dispensation designed to keep both India and Japan in the “jitters” and hence safely pro US.
3. Refer pt 1. Agreed China has emerged as a global economic powerhouse. But till such time this economic might does not translate into (and in turn be balanced by) a commensurate upsurge in “military power” and “international influence” – China will be confined and have to be satisfied with being an “emerging power” for a few more decades to come.
4. The recent US decision to relocate and reinforce its presence in Australia is a strategic gamechanger ! Wait and watch its “limiting effect on the Chinese influence within the East Asian region”.
Manuhar
Technically your hypothesis that this may not be like the first cold war is irrefutable. China currently doesn’t have the military muscle or the intention to get embroiled with the first world. However, the recent PLAN led belligerence in the foreign policy indicates China is willing to take the plunge.
While overall the military might of China may pale in comparison to US, in the Indo Pacific China can muster enough resources closer to mainland to influence events in the region. Further the economic dependence of the island countries in Asia Pacific on China is another feather in its cap.
The Australian base may send jitters temporarily and may unnerve the Chinese but in the long run US patience may run thin. The games being played in the region have only two players US and China. So it is natural for them to work closely on the economic front and be vary of each other in geo strategic terms. But the ball has been set rolling by Obama. Let us see if China bites the bait.
Pertinent debate in view of the cold war is that of US India relations.
While US remains standoffish with India, the Obama administration has been obsequious with China, although this approach has yielded little. Beijing is flexing its military muscles more strongly than ever, claiming vast regions of the South China Sea as territorial waters, harassing Japanese and Filipino naval vessels, picking diplomatic fights with Vietnam, exerting its influence over Burma and Nepal, shielding North Korea at the United Nations after Pyongyang’s deadly attacks on South Korea, and more. As for other areas on which the State Department spends more effort than it does on India, North Korea continues to militarize and threaten South Korea and Japan, and Burma’s junta is tightening its grip on power.
The irony of the US-India bilateral stall is that it’s happening at a time when the rest of Asia’s democracies are trying to pull closer to Washington in the face of ever more belligerent behavior from China. It’s also occurring when both the US and India could use a mutual boost to each other’s flagging economies. And despite the political problems, both Americans and Indians continue to view each other favorably, when polled.
So for now, at least, the US-India bilateral relationship will creep forward at a glacial speed, until new leadership rises to power in both nations. Let’s hope that it’s not a long wait.
With an American presidential election due in November 2012, and a leadership transition in China at about the same time, these will prove tricky waters to navigate for both sides in the year to come.
As per Asia times online, a “Great Game” involving India, China and the US is now playing out in Asia on the eastern fringes of the Indian subcontinent. But before the regional balance of power tilts away from China and towards India, the potholes on the road to Moreh will have to be smoothed out. Only then can China’s grip on Myanmar be challenged and India able to link up more directly and strategically with Southeast Asia.
That sums up India holding its end of the bargain in this Great Game.