Harrowing Times for Indian Diplomacy
February 15, 2012 by Team SAISA
Filed under foreign policy
- Dr Man Mohan Singh
One minor blast in a country which has witnessed a series of violent terrorist attacks, blasts and mayhem has sent the country on a tizzy and brought it to the centre of the raging conflict between Israel, duly supported by the west, and Iran. If anything, the attack on the Israel diplomatic car denotes the fragility of India to terror manipulations severely restricting its ability to chose a pragmatic diplomatic path.
There could be a host of patrons who, having understood India’s soft stance to terror, exploited the opportunity to initiate this event. With almost all cases of terror attacks remaining unresolved in the country – this would have been easy. The list of potential suspects could be any of the many Pakistani terror groups, al Qaeda, Indian Mujahideen, SIMI and others.
Iran though stands to lose significantly in oil revenues in this era of sanctions to initiate such an act. Logically speaking it has everything to lose should India, one of the last remaining buyers of Iranian oil, were to be forced by the west and Israel to take sides against Iran based on this incident. While Israel is going gung ho about blaming Iran, without the first investigation reports, it appears unlikely that Iran would chose such an option to cut its own feet. If Hezbollah has indeed done this they have not helped the Iranian cause either.
Commentators argue that India could well become the proxy battleground for the Middle Eastern rivalries . This has accentuated the growing Indian diplomatic dilemma as it will, depending on the result of the investigation, be forced to choose between two friends: one the supplier of high end defence equipment and the other its biggest source of oil.
Theoretically speaking, we at South Asian Idea, feel that this incident has been manufactured to isolate and vilify India in its stand for sanctions against Iran. As highlighted earlier it suits any of the al Qaeda or Pakistan’s terror groups, backed by ISI, to make it look like an Iranian attempt. It gains comprehensively by getting maximum bang for the bucks. Killing innocent Indians in terror attacks has limited returns as compared to a precision terror attack with low Pakistani footprint against an Israeli target in India. Lashkar-e-Toiba tried this earlier during the Mumbai attacks by specifically attacking Jewish targets with great effect. Unfortunately that only brought India closer to Israel in countering terrorism. There are countless Jihadis who would have volunteered to do this at ISI’s behest.
Yoram Cohen, the head of Israel’s internal security agency, Shin Bet, had said earlier this month that Iranian agents were attempting to attack Israeli targets around the world in retaliation for covert operations, including the assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists.
It is indeed difficult to imagine Jihadis letting this opportunity go by. If Pakistani groups have done this, they have hit bulls eye with Israel going ballistic about Iran’s involvement. Moreover as Pakistan gets closer to setting up the Iran Pakistan gas pipeline, sidelining India in Iran would be their immediate aim. This also puts the connectivity projects from Chahbahar to Iran and Bamiyan under a cloud in favour of Pakistan’s interests of isolating India in Afghanistan.
Purely from these conjectures this low yield high profile attack coinciding with Thailand, Georgia and Thailand once again, in the backdrop of Israel’s intelligence that Iran was out to attack its interests globally, was a god sent opportunity to any group or country to let go. ISI would be happy with its strategic plan of killing many a birds with one stroke and putting India in a bind.
The incident, per se, would have required minimal effort and any of the groups could have done it. It would be difficult not to prejudge the situation while the jury is still out. While it is extremely difficult to trace this attack back to Iran, India would be put under extreme pressure by Israel and the West to scale down its relations with Iran. The innovative Israeli media mechanism is already doing its best to shape world opinion against Iran based on this attack on Indian soil.
Related articles
- Indian Police Searching for Bomber Who Attacked Israeli Diplomat (ibtimes.com)
- Will Delhi Bomb Attack Hamper India’s Trade Ties with Iran? (ibtimes.com)
- India and Israel: Longtime Friends, Cautious Allies (ibtimes.com)
- Despite sanctions and pressure, India set to do more business with Iran – NDTV (ndtv.com)
- Israel accuses Iran of attacks in Delhi and Tbilisi (guardian.co.uk)
- New Delhi blast hits Israeli diplomat’s car (guardian.co.uk)
There are attempts from many quarters to use the soft and disorganised Indian state to further their interests. Many anti nationals occupy important positions in govt compromising us from within. There is also an organisation attempting to introduce Sharia, the barbaric islamic law in India.Kahan shuru kahan khatam? See the link below:
http://www.shariah4hind.com/
Cross border terrorism,is what India has been screaming about,since the 90s,and no one seemed to be impressed about it.It reached its pinnacle during the Kandahar hijacking,when India,perhaps to gain sympathy of the International community,let the hijackers to fly off to safety.Attitudes have hardened now.Iran is under pressure from the US and its allies,for its N-programme.It is natural that they will use all opportunities to pressurise,Iran to come to terms acceptable to them.Iran too has been crying hoarse,about the recent assasinations of her Nuclear scientists.Considering the track record of all the intelligence agencies of the world,one can draw a resonable conclusion,about the ‘ Professional Capablities’ of Mossad,CIA,the Iranians and others.The vital question that is to be answered is,did Israel jump the gun,by blaming Iran for the Delhi episode,and that the Anti-Iran lobby too joined the chorus ? Let us wait for the investigations to conclude in India,before the world forms an opinion.
” Logically speaking it [Iran] has everything to lose should India, one of the last remaining buyers of Iranian oil, were to be forced by the west and Israel to take sides against Iran based on this incident.”
The above statement in the article is palpably untrue, were it so Iran wouldn’t utter any threats not to supply oil to several European countries. Of course, India is an important country to Iran; Iran can look after itself comfortably, nevertheless. Among the wise Indians (like my friend Manishanker Ayer) M K Bhadarkumar takes the prize where conduct of Indian diplomacy in the mideast is concerned. While Pakistan is still an American client state (the NATO supply line stoppage notwithstanding), Indian diplomacy does get jelly kneed where standing up to American pressure is for real.
Actually, getting boxed up in Afghanistan is by far not just one problem. The Arab Spring is not playing according to the script of American preference. All the hysterics of American media and State Department on Syria have not yielded even minimal results. Even in the small matter of Maldives the fate of Indo-American ‘initiatives’ appear not to be wholly joyous.
These are tough times for Indian Diplomacy but can be overcome favourably if India creates space for diplomacy by bringing Israel, US and Iran to talk.
That space can only be widened if rhetoric gives way to reason: something which is in short supply currently.
Iran genuinely may not be wanting to make the bomb but the extreme sanctions and intense lobbying by Israel and the west may push it to the wall. Indian interlocutory skills need to focus on this aspect of their public diplomacy campaign.
This article provides a good analysis of various possibilities behind this attack, the most probable being machinations of the ISI of Pakistan to make it look like an attack by the Iranians or the Hezbollah because they have already lost all semblance of international decency akin to having been disrobed publically by all nations affected by the scourge of terrorism and hence left with nothing more to lose.
Even if it was masterminded and executed by Hezbollah, they could not have accomplished it without active help from the ISI and/or at least one of its many siblings in India because so far Hezbollah has not revealed its presence in India.
Coming to the Heading of this article, viz. Harrowing Time for Indian Diplomacy, it is a good question but I feel sad because of the mess prevailing in the South Block. Who do you expect to answer this question; in other words, Is somebody really bothered? Prima facie it should be the Prime Minister as the head of the Government, but do you think our LipLock Prime Minister will ever open his mouth on this issue, or any other issue for that matter? Then who else? The Minister for External Affairs? The present incumbent does not even know which text to read in a place like the UNO and starts reading someone else’s speech; the best part is …. nothing happens to him despite this fiasco of international (dis)repute. Our diplomacy must be the most demoralized lot for having to take orders from such nincompoops.
In the context of our country the topics of this kind are not really relevant and therefore we should not waste our time in raising them. Here any body can kill any number of persons any time at any place. Do we really have any system in place to check and stop them! And why do we expect the national security agencies to nab the culprits? To waste our time and resources on lengthy trials in our rickety judicial system? And after the culprits have been sentenced ….to keep the execution of court’s order in a state of Suspended Animation on pretext of Presidential review or mercy petition by the guilty? While the real issue is the vote bank politics.
Our Diplomacy must really be facing a harrowing time not only because of the attacsk on the Israeli diplomat but also because of the Diarchy headed by Soniamaucy.
The main problem with us is that we just don’t know ourselves. We are the HEART and SOUL of NON-ARAB ASIA and there is immense need that we take up this line and convene a big NAM-like conference in Delhi of all non-Arab Asian countries.ONAA like OIC is very necessary.But we don’t do any thing and just follow others who are more concerned with their own strategic and business interests.
From Iran to Indonesia and Mongolia to Australia including all “stans” of Central Asia and the Buddhist Far-East of China/Japan/Korea, this whole region is the home of Indian Culture and Traditions but we have little realization of this vital fact.Only this non-Arab Doctrine can make our foreign policy robust and meaningful.
2.Two Punjabs and two Bengals – what a nonsense.We must do something to make again One Punjab and One Bengal.Only then, Kashmir will also become One Kashmir.This will ultimately lead to One India again, which is today divided in four parts ie Af/Pak/Ind/B’desh.Pakistan is a fallout of Medieval anti-Indian Arab/Muslim Imperialism. It cannot last long.It is a product of Terrorism also.Bloody riots by Muslim League forced Congress leaders to accept vicious Mountbatten Plan to divide Punjab and Bengal on Hindu/Muslim basis.Congress leaders accepted this dirty plan on humanitarian ground as innocent people were being killed by ML rioters.Nehru said wisely “let us see how long they (Pakistan) last”.Pakistan has finished in B’desh and in Punjab the process of its end has started.When Pakistan will finish up in Punjab,it will be the end of it from the surface of the earth.Pakistan faces threat not from outside, but from inside itself.Not from India but from Pakistan itself.The process of Pakistan’s Indianisation has started, it is on the way to become either “Muslim India” or “Islamic Republic of India”.It cannot now exist as Pakistan in any case. 9/11 has killed Pakistan for ever, let everybody understand this clearly.