Destination Af Pak after Health Bill

Finally, Obama gets past the 216, in fact 219, in senate to push the health reforms bill through amongst chants of “Yes We Can” from the democrats.

Alright then, what does this have to do with South Asian Idea’s Blog?

For one, the Obama team has been assured of its capability to make historic decisions in the US. This would encourage Obama to push through other major bills.

With one of the major tests in domestic policy behind him, Obama’s team would now attempt achieving foreign policy victories to ensure Obama gets a second term. These would include those concerning the strategic environment in Af- Pak as they affect US foreign policy. Obama had also promised to pull out of Afghanistan by mid 2011. It would be a major milestone in American overseas history if Obama can get out of the region without leaving a devastated Afghanistan in its wake. US is currently involved deeply in the Middle East peace process (worsened by the recent US – Israel standoff over Jewish settlements), containing Iran, managing Iraq and trying to gracefully pull out of Afghanistan. China, of course, is a subject of another post.

Under these circumstances of US foreign policy, the one with most tangible pay offs, domestically, will be the pull out from Afghanistan – a commitment he made during his election campaign. It would please the NATO countries participating in Afghanistan, boost the morale of a fatigued army and receive accolades from the US public: all these converting into positive vote banks for the democrats.  Of necessity, the pull out will not be aimed at leaving a vacuum behind. Adequate safeguards to ensure stability in the region would be put in place to obviate another NATO deployment.

Obama Wants Out

That US is courting Pakistan aggressively towards this aim goes without saying. Kayani knows this only too well. It is within the ambit of this US compulsion that he  and Shuja Pasha have been invited to Washington along with the “elected Pakistan Government”. Obama will do every thing possible to ensure that he satisfies Kayani with respect to his “needs” and “apprehensions” especially with respect to India. The US administration will also not like to implicate the ISI and Pakistan Army in the Mumbai carnage by keeping a lid on the Headley case – at best “non state actors” like LeT may be reprimanded. Headley, now under US “plea bargain”, can always be “coached” to speak the Pakistani version during “access” to India.

In addition to this, the “India Centric Kayani” will be offered a range of military and civil aid. Simultaneously, his demand of keeping India out of any regional solution to Afghanistan will be met with. There are media reports that the India like nuclear deal with Pakistan may be on the anvil.

There will be a lot of other machinations and equations formed during the soon to be held strategic summit with Pakistan – and as a result Kayani will be assured of prominence in the Afghan solution. He will also qualify as the Afghan Army trainer to fill the requirement of Afghani boots on the ground.This may be the route Kayani takes towards Presidency by the year-end. Alternatively, he may well continue with the current arrangement (as the puppeteer), if the US so demands. Coincidently, Indrani Bagchi has done a wonderful study on Kayani in this Sunday’s Times of India – and she is right with her predictions and analysis.

Whatever, in the meanwhile, the Health Bill may not be all that healthy for India.