All scenarios and options painted by these analysts only focus on the dominant Punjabi elites –largely available in the JMC, at the cost of provincial stability. Unwittingly, they all believe (dangerously) that military is the only option to ensure relative stability in Pakistan where the democratic parties are too divided and defunct to steer Pakistan.
In several other countries around the world Chinese brought in for the projects are being encouraged to settle down and take up small commercial activities. The largest influx of Chinese workers, many of whom could ultimately settle down to form Chinese colonies is wherever China is undertaking port construction and linking infrastructure projects or where the Chinese have taken out long leases from the host governments, especially those in dire financial straits.
A disturbed security environment in Asia- Pacific will adversely affect, flow of energy, commerce and trade, leading to escalation of oil prices and hurting global economy. In the larger interest of humanity, it is imperative that every stakeholder acts responsibly and contributes towards the resolution of disputes. Time is critical, and we must act in right earnest to build confidence and create frameworks for enduring peace and stability in the region.
Gwadar undoubtedly, has enormous economic potential and could easily rival Dubai and transform the landscape of Balochistan but the port cannot achieve its potential as long as the restive population of Balochistan does not feel enthusiastic about it. Pakistan pins great hopes on Gwadar and expects it to become a gateway to Central Asia and Afghanistan. The successful operation will result in enormous benefits to Pakistan and may provide China with a crucial outpost in the Persian Gulf.
Like South East Asia, South Asia, a region at logger heads with itself based or its internal fault lines, is likely to see itself engulfed in this great game between the West and the Rest – a game it not played right may undermine its economic and political future. It is here that the drama unfolding in the twin seas of South Asia – The Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal needs to be carefully monitored to ensure South Asia doesn’t risk becoming pawn in geopolitical clash between the two extra regional powers.
As of now, there are no firm indications that China would want to or be capable of (considering US concerns) convert Gwadar into a military base. But if and when it does India would be found wanting if it doesn’t put the larger geo strategic alliances with US, Iran and Oman in place. Simultaneously, it would have to vitalize its look East policy to ensure its place under the sun in the greater Indian Ocean.
As an aspiring, though reluctant regional power, India must overcome its fear of overseas military interventions – occasioned by the ill-advised and unsuccessful foray into Sri Lanka in the 1980s – and stand up and be counted as a genuine rising power that is willing to discharge legitimate regional responsibilities.
Vinod Saighal The subject has become centre stage primarily because the USA has made clear its intention to pull out from Afghanistan. The countries that would view it as a positive development would be Pakistan and China along with Saudi Arabia and the UAE that were major backers of the Taliban prior to 2001. However, the latter countries might no longer be as sure [...]
Pakistan, India and J&K are all headed for elections. There, thus, is great patriotic duty of politicians (military in case of Pakistan) to take recourse to rhetoric based grand standing to garner public support in their respective constituencies. In each country and state this has provided the right fodder to the political class to engage in upping the ante – much against preserving National Interest.
Good governance, including a transparent system for the delivery of justice; sustained socio-economic development; and, a secure environment for the first two to flourish, are the three pillars of a successful counter-insurgency campaign. In Afghanistan, the post-ISAF security environment is likely to spin out of control if supplementary security arrangements are not conceived soon and put in place quickly with the help of its neighbours.