Pakistan: Soft Coup Appears Imminent
January 12, 2012 by Team SAISA
Filed under Analysis
No democratic government has survived the full term in Pakistan. Something which the Pakistan Army takes great pride in having ruled Pakistan for half of its existence directly and the rest indirectly. In the worst face off between the civil government and the military, both of which are suffering legitimacy crisis in Pakistan, the scales seem to be tipping in favour of the Army as it controls the foreign policy.
With the judiciary standing behind the Army due to Chief Justice’s personal vendetta against Mr Zardari, there is a strong reason to believe that the days of this government are numbered. Mr Choudhary is likely to use the NRO issue to discredit the government at the behest of the Army.
The generals and the judges will thus keep Mr Zardari’s back to the wall. He will continue to manoeuvre on different levels to frustrate them. That means the government will remain, in effect, paralysed.
The army, which has suffered a severe loss of face courtesy events such as OBL, Mehran attack and the NATO attacks wants to redeem its pride to protect its businesses in Pakistan. But does it want to rule while having to govern a bankrupt state? Our assessment is a big NO.
Purely from this standpoint it may opt for a soft coup in which it forces the PPP government to step down, judicially or otherwise and order early polls. With Imran Khan batting for the Army this appears to be the ideal choice.
Why is a coup unlikely?
The insurmountable problems of internal security situations perpetuated by the Taliban make it an absolutely unenviable task to take control of the country. A run down economy, squabbling over resources and a general management chaos does not augur well for the army which has a stake in various national financial and business enterprises.
Pakistan military is running low on its approval ratings to stage a coup both with the opposition PML(N) and with PPP. Anyway, as it still continues to govern the country’s foreign and defence policy, there is little it would gain by staging a coup except inheriting a variety of administrative woes. These are only likely to worsen in the days ahead.
The army may be reluctant to stage a coup as it may incur the wrath of the Supreme Court. But the possibility that the Court may take action against Mr. Gilani, which could lead to an early poll, is a possibility which may prompt army to bide their time till the polls.
There are deep divisions within the Army between the Allah’s Army (the radicalised lot) and the moderate ones. A battle between the two is something the Pakistan Army cannot afford right now.More here.
However, there are other factors too. The US wants a stable government in Pakistan to fight its war on terror in Af Pak – something for which it needs support of the Pakistan Army desperately. While the US is reiterating that this is an internal matter of Pakistan, General Dempsey apparently has been in touch with General Kayani. This touch would definitely nudge Pakistan to keep the real power with the Army, the largest recipient of American largesse.
The Imran Khan factor is also important. For some time now the Army has been nurturing him to take a pivotal role in Pakistan politics. An anti-American, radicalised Imran suits their larger aims in managing the country away from the combined wrath of PPP and PML. His call for elections and rejection of support for a coup may be part of a larger conspiracy to get him on board.
Way Ahead
The path ahead appears uncertain. There are speculations of all types doing rounds. This civil government has no doubt performed poorly in the face of major problems facing the nation. However if it survives its full term, it may be the first Pakistan government to do so. Purely from this historical stand point – it may fall sooner than expected. However, it is our firm conviction that the army would not take the plunge this time around and prop Mr Imran to bowl for them.
Let us see which choice Pakistan chooses – coup, compromise or chaos!
Related articles
- Pakistan infighting may spell trouble for West (cbsnews.com)
- Imran Khan calls for early polls, won’t back coup (ibnlive.in.com)
- Pakistan army commanders meet (thehindu.com)
- Pakistan: a coup by other means | Editorial (guardian.co.uk)
- Rumours of a coming coup may be exaggerated (thehindu.com)
- Imran predicts N-PPP alliance (nation.com.pk)
- Pakistan army commanders meet amid rising tensions (foxnews.com)
The recent visits to China may have guided the Pak Army not to overplay its hand in engineering a coup. China does not want to help wash Pak dirty linen. Any overt sp to a coup does China no good. I am also NOT certain whether Oak wants China in Afghanistan. If that happens, Pak for Afghanistan will become a recessed neighbour and China far more important. US is certainly NOT keen to let China slip in. The kid gloves are off. The new cold war is US-China.
The issue of Kayani NOT getting excited about his old boss Musharraf returning makes sense. Also, Imran may be better off hitching himself to Kayani and not Musharraf who did little substantial for Pakistan and is the author of the current mess.
Imran, if positioned will be no friend of India; NDTV notwithstanding.
The Yanks are nursing burnt fingers; have a part to play but are confused on what needs doing. Elections and strategic exhaustion are responsible for their lack of interest.
In all the articles i have read on current situation in Pakistan , none is talking about the influence events in Cairo , Syria and Tunis might have had on the Pak Generals led by Kayani about carrying out a coup. They have already witnessed a similar upsurge in Pakistan when the current Chief justice was removed leading to eventual removal of Musharraf. Today he is a fugitive from Justice .
I wonder whether Kayani is foolish enough to ignore the lessons of very recent history
Gopal
A military coup in Pakistan indeed is highly unlikely not only at this stage but even in many years to come in the near future. Given the present state of near anarchy prevailing there, no faction will dare do that for the fear of being held responsible for balkanization of Pakistan which seems inevitable and near imminent. All sensible Pakistanis and other well wishers of the people of Pakistan elsewhere would like to see peace and law and order restored in Pakistan as soon as possible and further to see Pakistan taking long and quick strides on the path to progress to get its rightful place in the comity of nations having the fifth largest population in the world. But what is the way out of the present morass?
Before we try to find an answer to this question, it would be necessary to examine as to how did Pakistan get into the this quagmire. One single factor responsible for this is the Pakistani notion of being in hostile competition with India, at the backdrop of which is the very concept of Pakistan’s foundation that is creation of a theocratic state in the wrong belief that the muslims can not co exist with Hindus or other communities. Since India despite its multi ethnic and plural demographic complexion, has continued to be peaceful and is marching steadily on the path to progress and development, this concept stands ridiculed. But the fundamentalist forces in Pakistan aided and abetted by their mentors outside the borders of Pakistan have been hell bent to prove the eternal Indian (read Hindu) way of life of “Live and Let Live” a failure even at the cost of self destruction to the Pakistani state. This is the reason why they have been fighting to take Kashmir by force which is a muslim majority region. By the same logic, even if they succeed theoretically in getting control of Kashmir, they will become champions for the muslims elsewhere in India till they finally succeed in fulfilling their pipe dream of converting entire population of India to Islam.
Coming back to the question, Is there a way out? Yes it is there, simple, very simple indeed. Realise and accept the ground reality. No body is plotting to cause harm to Pakistan; reign in the fundamentalist forces, do not allow your territory to be used as a factory for the manufacture of terrorists for use against India and other countries, be peaceful and let others also be peaceful.
This analysis in Foreign Policy says the same thing..wonder if it will emerge as a valid one
Khayani is sitting in the co drivers seat and could control the affairs of Pak.There is no need to take the driver’s seat and become unpopular/ face the same music at a later stage like Musharaff.He has already made statements under the guise of Security of the nation.Army had made itself supreme in the internal affairs/foreign policy of Pak. Pak cannot afford to antagonise USA as it cannot fully depend on communist China.Communist China can never dig its deep heels in Islamic countries. The Chinese interest in Pak could only to counter Indian strategic interests in the neighboring countries & AksaiChin grabbing. Wait & watch attitude of India stands well for the time being though India made a comment for a democratic civilian rule in Pak