Egyptian Elections: What Do They Mean?

Elections in Egypt for the new parliament(lower house) are being held this Monday onwards in three rounds. The Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice party, and their secular rivals, the biggest of which is the Free Egyptians party are the main protagonists. However as dictated by the Supreme Council of Armed Forces this parliament would have a short shelf life and once they have written and put the constitution to referendum – the elections for the presidency will take place some time in 2013. Till then the SCAF shall govern the country. The military is likely to ensure that its reign continues after 2013 also, Pakistan style. In the interim the military which receives major chunk of the $ 2 Billion aid from America would continue to build its commercial interests, unmindful of the revolution that continues beyond Mubarak. The elections would in all probabilities deliver a toothless parliament.

In our earlier post, “Change in Egypt will Change the Region” by Dr Muqtedar Khan it was argued that the cultural pole star of the Arab world had a duty to show path to rest of them.

Egypt is the key to the Arab world. Its enduring authoritarian regime is the biggest hurdle to democracy and freedom in the region. Saudi Arabia has long been a rival to Egyptian hegemony in the Arab world. But a country that has never fought a war for its people does not truly inspire the Arab imagination. Whatever influence Saudi Arabia has, it has been bought with petro dollars. Egypt on the contrary has been the engine of Arab imagination, its intellectual and political center. If Egypt becomes democratic, democracy will become the norm in the Arab World.

Dr Muqtedar’s prophecy is likely to come true but in a slow painful dispensation which is likely to ensure that the Egyptian democracy is tied to the pole by the military. The war in Tahrir Square is all about one thing – the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces has no intention of giving up power. The SCAF must go but who does it handover power to. If the transition is to have any meaning the first round of elections must ensure a long term government which in the current environment may be a hung decision.

Egypt’s experiment with democracy is new. So are other mechanisms without a constitution. To that extent the military may be right in preventing the country from descending into chaos. But the time schedule spelt out the SCAF for the presidential elections suggests it has other games in mind to prolong its reign. A quick transition as demanded by US and other Western countries may be difficult but a smooth early transition is not a difficult dream.

America is caught between two unpalatable options: pressing ahead for elections that the Islamists are likely to win, and thereby sounding like a force for Egypt’s democratic transition; or recommending a postponement that a growing number of liberal Egyptians prefer, but which risks coming across as anti-democratic. However US is not alone in facing a hob son’s choice. Egyptians themselves are worried that the country’s powerbrokers are slowing and surely reversing the gains achieved in this year’s revolution. But at the same time a large minority of Egyptians also plans to vote for an Islamic party in parliamentary elections.

As Egypt copes with street protests in the run-up to parliamentary elections, Israel fears that a strengthening of Islamists at the expense of the military could doom the deal that removed Israel’s biggest neighbor from its list of enemies, giving the Jewish state far more room to maneuver on other fronts.

As Dr Muqtedar Khan says,

” I am not sure if Egypt will be transformed into a democratic and open society. The possibility that a new strongman will replace the old along with some cosmetic changes is a more likely outcome.  But nevertheless Egypt and the Arab World have been presented with a historic opportunity; I pray that they will grasp it firmly.”

These are delicate times and need to be handled as such. If the Egyptian model works well the region might change for the better. Our posts Arabian Knights – where are they headed and Will the military save Egypt ring true today.

Related articles

• Egyptian elections: the key questions answered (guardian.co.uk)
• Back to Tahrir Square (alethonews.wordpress.com)
• US to Egypt: Stick to election plan, even if it favors Islamist parties (csmonitor.com)
• Egypt’s military sticking to election plan (seattletimes.nwsource.com)
• US urges quick transition to democracy in Egypt (sfgate.com)
• Egypt military taps Mubarak crony as new PM – CBS News (cbsnews.com)
• Egypt military refuses to loosen grip on power (cbsnews.com)
• Egypt has halted the drive to derail the Arab revolution | Seumas Milne (guardian.co.uk)
• A delicate game for Egypt (theglobeandmail.com)